The Spin from CREA

So here’s what CREA is saying: July’s housing numbers are “tightening,” prices are “stabilizing,” and if the Bank of Canada cuts rates this fall, we could be off to the races.

The numbers they’re pointing to:

Benchmark price basically flat at $688,700 (that’s a $200 bump from June — hardly fireworks).
Sales up four months in a row.
Months of inventory down to 4.4 from 4.9 — supposedly pushing us toward a sellers’ market.

Sounds like momentum, but we’re skeptical.

The Reality

1. Flat price isn’t a rebound.

Two hundred bucks month-to-month is just noise. CREA’s own MLS® Home Price Index shows the national benchmark has been flatlining since spring, still about $20,000 below where it was late last year.

2. Inventory isn’t as “tight” as they say.

CREA calls the “long-term average” five months of inventory. But if you look at their own historic data, it’s closer to 3.5. At 4.4, we’re still looser than normal — not the hot sellers’ market they’re hinting at.

3.Sales always climb in spring.

Yes, four months of increases looks good on paper, but April and May always pop (that’s the spring market). Only June and July matter — and even then, sales are just recovering from a weak base.

4. We’ve seen this before.

This back-and-forth tightening and loosening has been happening for the past few years. None of it has triggered a lasting rally.

The Bank of Canada Angle

Sure, CREA says a rate cut could light a fire under prices. But here’s what’s actually happening:

Probability of a September cut sits around 33%–40%, not a sure bet—as shown by markets and inflation trends. The recent inflation dip to 1.8% nudged those odds up, but not enough to deliver certainty.
The Bank of Canada held its rate steady at 2.75% on July 30, and markets see little chance of cuts this year.
The BoC’s internal minutes show a divide among policymakers — some are cautious, others open to easing, but all agree more data is needed.
If cuts do happen, they’ll likely be driven by a weakening economy — not strength. So they won’t translate to a housing boom.

What This Means for Brokers

Private lenders are busy. High rates and stress tests keep borrowers locked out of the banks, so demand for private lending is strong.
Stay conservative. Flat pricing means there’s no cushion. Keep LTVs low, terms short, and investors protected.
Plan for exits. Once cuts eventually show up, clients will flock back to A-lenders. Build in prepayment fees or renewal strategies so your lenders don’t lose yield.
Banks are stuck waiting. Their pipelines will stay thin until rates move. But when cuts come, they’ll snap back fast.

Bottom Line

CREA can dress this up however they like, but the story doesn’t change: prices are flat, inventory is still loose, and sales are mostly seasonal.

For brokers, the takeaways are as follows: